Hurricane Rita

[bejohnson]

I'm in New Orleans and all of us here at the work site are keeping a close eye on this monster. We have just learned that it has already reached a Category FIVE status.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xg1_ir.gif

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_sat.jpg

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_5day.gif

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 17

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2005

And yet another category five hurricane this season. Data from both
NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunters indicate a significant
pressure drop today and winds have increased to 145 knots. This is
based on a 700 mb wind of 161 knots recently measured by an Air
Force plane and a recalibrated SFMR surface wind of 146 knots.
Satellite intensity estimates were unanimously 140 knots from all
agencies. Because Rita will be crossing an area of high heat
content during the next 12 to 24 hours...it is expected that the
hurricane will maintain its strength. Thereafter...the ocean heat
content is not as high and the intensity changes will be controlled
mainly by eyewall replacement cycles and decreasing heat content.
Some weakening is anticipated but Rita is forecast to make landfall
as a major hurricane...at least category three.

There has been no change in the steering pattern and Rita is moving
westward or 275 degrees at 11 knots. The high pressure system that
has been forcing Rita westward is forecast to weaken and shift
eastward. This will allow the hurricane to turn gradually toward
the west-northwest and northwest during the next day or two. The
core of Rita is basically moving toward the Texas coast and this is
consistent with the track model consensus.

The wind field associated with the hurricane has begun to expand
and tropical storm force winds already extend about 150 N mi in the
northern semicircle. Because additional expansion of the wind
field is anticipated...a Hurricane Watch and a tropical storm watch
have been issued for the northwest Gulf Coast.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/2100z 24.4n 86.8w 145 kt
12hr VT 22/0600z 24.5n 88.5w 145 kt
24hr VT 22/1800z 25.2n 90.6w 145 kt
36hr VT 23/0600z 26.0n 92.7w 135 kt
48hr VT 23/1800z 27.0n 94.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 24/1800z 30.5n 97.0w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 25/1800z 33.0n 97.0w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/1800z 36.0n 96.0w 25 kt...inland


$$

[wazman]

My brother-in-law and his wife live in Houston... They're boarding up their doors and windows and stocking up... We'll see what happens.

[T-shirt]

BE time to practice your 'hunkerin down' skills, even without a direct hit, NOLA could get seriously hurt, just being on the wet side of the storm.
This one already has as much energy as Katrina and another 12-24 hours to build up some more.
last report was 167 mph winds with gusts to 202 :noway .
WAZ hope your BiL and family are ready to do whatever hunkerin' is called there.
talked to someone in that area today, he said gun and ammo sales were way up (with some gouging on the ammo, 2x normal price), and cars were double parked on the streets around home depot, because the parking lots were gridlocked.

[T-shirt]

Wtnt63 Knhc 212351
Tcuat3
Hurricane Rita Tropical Cyclone Update
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
650 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 21 2005

...rita Becomes The Third Most Intense Hurricane On Record...

Dropsonde Data From An Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance
Aircraft At 623 Pm Cdt...2323z...indicated The Central Pressure Has
Fallen To Below 899 Mb...or 26.55 Inches. The Dropsonde Instrument
Measured 32 Kt/35 Mph Winds At The Surface...which Means It Likely
Did Not Record The Lowest Pressure In The Eye Of Rita. The Central
Pressure Is Probably At Least As Low As 898 Mb...and Perhaps Even
Lower. For Official Purposes... A Pressure Of 898 Mb Is Assumed...
Which Now Makes Rita The Third Most Intense Hurricane In Terms Of
Pressure In The Atlantic Basin. Some Additional Deepening And
Intensification Is Possible For The Next 12 Hours Or So.

Rita Currently Ranks Behind Hurricane Gilbert In 1988 With 888 Mb
And The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane With 892 Mb.

Forecaster Stewart

[WazLady73]

I am keeping my eye on this monster of a storm!

Yes, my brother and sister in law live in northwest Houston. I talked to my mom today to see if she had spoken to him. She said he sounded concerned and today we was going out an buying boards and stocking up on water and food. They are 50 miles inland...but still this hurricane is 350 miles WIDE!

My brother lives in a new brick house....so they will have to board up the inside of the windows.

I will talk to my mom tomorrow and see if she had spoken to him and see how they are doing.

At least people are evaucating this time.......they are getting out!

[Artcwolf]

Here she comes.

Bad news, she's big.

Good news, it's difficult for the atmosphere to produce a cat 5 hurricane but it's even more difficult to keep it there. Hopefully, the conditions will not remain perfect for long. Her eye was at 897 millibars and seems to be dropping. From what I've been reading she has about another day of strengthening to go and she's at 175 mph at the time I post this. Katrina's most powerful was around 902 (lower is more powerful) and 175 at her peak (landfall for Katrina was 148 mph) to give some perspective on the power of the storm. There have been only two cat 5 hurricanes to hit the US in the past century, Hurricane Camille in 69 and Andrew in 92. Rita could, potentially make number three. Lets hope not.

If it keeps it's strength up...and it's current forcasted path, DFW will see hurricane force winds and spawned tornado's. For those that don't know, Dallas/Fort Worth is about 310 miles away and Corpus Christi is over 400 miles away.

Houston could really be hurting if it sees a good hit. It will be interesting to see how many homeowners have flood insurance in Houston if it gets a storm surge. That city was not really designed around taking a direct hit. Galveston will bounce back if everyone leaves like their supposed too. Texas City will be a major issue. That city is nothing but refineries and chemical plants.

It will be interesting to see how this one pans out. Like they say, we do everything bigger here in Texas!

[Mahachippy]

Yeah, it should be interesting. I live in Paris...right on the Texas/Oklahoma border, about three counties over from the Texas/Louisiana border. We are supposed to be getting about 6 inches of rain and multiple tornados are predicted they could spring up. I think we might just add a few miles to tornado alley! But we will spring back no matter what...just kinda wish we had the defenders of the Alamo, Col. Travis, and Gen. Houston to head it off at Galveston! To all my Texas brethern you are in my prayers...Godspeed to you and God bless the Lone Star!!

[3dGameMan]

Rita Upgraded Again, Category 5: ~source (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/21/national/nationalspecial/21cnd-storm.html?ei=5094&en=095ea3dc5f038dc5&hp=&ex=1127361600&partner=homepage&pagewanted=all)

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/09/21/national/21cnd-texa.2.184.jpg

By WILLIAM YARDLEY and JENNIFER BAYOT
Published: September 21, 2005

NEW ORLEANS, Sept. 21 - Hurricane Rita reached Category 5 intensity today, the severest storm designation, as it churned through the Gulf of Mexico on a course that could send it over coastal Texas and southwest Louisiana as early as Friday night.

The storm is "now the third most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin on record," the National Hurricane Center said in a statement at 7 p.m. Central time, citing the storm's maximum sustained winds of 165 miles an hour, 10 m.p.h. greater than the 155 m.p.h. that defines a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Katrina, by comparison, was a Category 4 storm when it hit the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29 farther to the east of Rita's projected landfall.

At 7 p.m., the storm's powerful center was reported 580 miles east-southeast of Galveston, Tex., and about 680 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Tex., moving west at 13 m.p.h. "Rita is a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane," the hurricane center said.

Officials in Texas, bracing for the worst after the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana and Mississippi, told residents in coastal counties, including Harris, Galveston and Matagorda, to evacuate to Huntsville, Lufkin and College Station. Lines of cars and buses streamed from the shorelines today as people complied. Residents who evacuated on public buses were to be allowed to take their pets along in crates, local television stations reported.

The mayor of Houston, Bill White, called on schools to close today and Friday and asked that employers require only essential staff members to report to work on those days. He urged residents to evacuate from the expected path of the hurricane, especially if they were living in mobile homes, and to help each other if they could. "We need citizens who may need assistance in evacuating to reach out to friends, family, relatives, neighbors," the mayor said. "There will not be enough government vehicles to go and evacuate everybody in the area."

He said the city needed residents to be a first line of defense - "to do your job and to go out and to actively look for those who may need assistance."

Mayor White and Judge Robert Eckels of Harris County - who had constituted a kind of rallying Rudy Giuliani duo during the resettlement of Katrina survivors - voiced confidence that they could safely handle the demands of Hurricane Rita.

"We are better prepared than most other places in the nation from the government side and a public information and education side," Judge Eckels said. "We've done all we can do."

Their plan called for taking transit buses out of regular service to move evacuees, sending trucks and extra personnel to areas that expect the worst floods, teaming up with Time Warner Cable to issue emergency broadcast messages on non-news channels, and a novel use of "reverse 911" calls.

In these calls, the fire marshal or other county official issues a prerecorded message to geographically coded areas and residents receive a phone call asking them to evacuate. If the resident is not home the system leaves a message on voice mail. But if no one answers after two calls, the system does not call again.

In Lufkin, preparations were made to house evacuees in a campground, church and other shelters, including schools and a civic center, according to Web site of a local television station, KTRE. "Well, we're just going by projections but we have to plan for 10,000," said Ted Lovett with the Lufkin Fire Department.

In Matagorda County, the authorities warned that anyone who chose to ride out the storm with children would be prosecuted for child endangerment, KHOU-TV reported...

[Tivon]

If the storm is headed your way, GET OUT NOW! :Holy Crap

[Newbie2]

HURRICANE RITA COULD BE WORSE THAN HURRICANE KATRINA! :jawsdown :Holy Crap :noway I saw that message on CNN! It is going to hit Galveston, Texas as a strong category 4 hurricane with top winds of up to 150 MPH/240 KPH!

[maud'ib]

Gas around here has been seen at over $2.00 CAN/Liter

And the storm hasn't even caused any refinery / pipeline damage yet :Nope

Talk about thieves. :tantrum

[Bobenis]

Gas around here has been seen at over $2.00 CAN/Liter

And the storm hasn't even caused any refinery / pipeline damage yet :Nope

Talk about thieves. :tantrum

Yup...corporate greed. A few dictate to all. What is even more funny is that Canada gets their oil and gas from within our own country so what does the oil down south have to do with our prices!? Yes thievery...legal thievery if there is such a thing. :negative :Nope

[Artcwolf]

I-45N has been turned into a one way exit from Galveston to DFW. They are getting out as quickly as possible. I'll take some pix of what it looks like when it gets to DFW.

[T-shirt]

several of the temporary dike/levy patches have given way, and New Orleans is flooding again.
http://www.comcast.net/news/index.jsp?cat=GENERAL&fn=/2005/09/23/227426.html

"We have three significant breaches in the levee and the water is rising rapidly," he said. "At daybreak I found substantial breaks and they've grown larger."

Dozens of blocks in the Ninth Ward were under water as a waterfall at least 30 feet wide poured over and through a dike that had been used to patch breaks in the Industrial Canal levee. On the street that runs parallel to the canal, the water ran waist-deep and was rising fast. Guidry said water was rising about three inches a minute.

[Maro]

Damn, that's not good at all :Sigh

[bejohnson]

Hey guys. We evacuated the tower site in New Orleans on Thursday due to questions of the safety of the tower. The structural evaluation had not been completed from Hurricane Katrina and we did not want 1100 feet of steel falling on our heads.

We were in the area of New Orleans called Algiers and it has remained dry but has extensive wind damage. We evacuated 70 miles to the north to Mt. Harmon, LA where there is no cell phone coverage or wireless Internet access of any kind.

[Artcwolf]

Hey guys. We evacuated the tower site in New Orleans on Thursday due to questions of the safety of the tower. The structural evaluation had not been completed from Hurricane Katrina and we did not want 1100 feet of steel falling on our heads.

We were in the area of New Orleans called Algiers and it has remained dry but has extensive wind damage. We evacuated 70 miles to the north to Mt. Harmon, LA where there is no cell phone coverage or wireless Internet access of any kind.


Good to hear you're ok.

Rita didn't come visit us in the DFW area. Not one drop of rain. I'm very sad we didn't see any rain from Rita. We need it so desprately. Severe drought right now and record highs are really putting the squeeze on DFW.

Dallas saw most of the evacuee's from Rita so those of us on the FTW side didn't have to deal with any gas issues. I don't think anyone was running out up here but there were some long lines on the east side of the metroplex.

[bejohnson]

Good to hear you're ok.

Rita didn't come visit us in the DFW area. Not one drop of rain. I'm very sad we didn't see any rain from Rita. We need it so desprately. Severe drought right now and record highs are really putting the squeeze on DFW.

Dallas saw most of the evacuee's from Rita so those of us on the FTW side didn't have to deal with any gas issues. I don't think anyone was running out up here but there were some long lines on the east side of the metroplex.

We moved back into the tower site compound today and set up shop. Hope to get things moving in the next day or so so I can get out of this landfill with streets. If I have a chance to take a few pictures I'll post them in a seperate thread.